Course / Course Details
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By - Ashish Modi
This course offers a practical, case study-driven exploration of pharmaceutical forecasting, focusing on the critical processes of patient funnel development, assumption gathering, and building simplified forecast models. Designed for professionals in commercial analytics, business intelligence, and market access, the curriculum blends theory with real-world application to ensure learners can confidently translate data into actionable forecasts for pharmaceutical products.
Patient Funnel Development:
Learn how to construct detailed patient funnels by mapping the journey from disease prevalence through diagnosis, treatment eligibility, and therapy uptake. Explore data sources and methodologies for estimating patient populations at each stage, ensuring robust market opportunity assessments.
Assumption Gathering:
Master the art of identifying, validating, and documenting key forecasting assumptions. Understand best practices for sourcing data, engaging stakeholders, and stress-testing assumptions to ensure transparency and credibility in forecast outputs.
Simplified Forecast Model Development:
Gain hands-on experience developing streamlined, transparent forecast models. Learn to balance complexity with usability, enabling rapid scenario analysis and clear communication of results to decision-makers. Explore the use of Excel and basic statistical methods for model construction and validation.
Interactive modules with real-world pharma case studies
Step-by-step exercises in patient funnel construction and assumption mapping
Practical assignments to build and test simplified forecast models
Group discussions on best practices and common pitfalls in pharma forecasting
Final project: Develop and present a complete forecast for a selected therapeutic area
Learners completing the Pharma Forecasting Case Studies – Patient Funnel, Assumption Gathering, and Simplified Model Development course will gain practical, industry-relevant skills essential for effective pharmaceutical forecasting. They will be able to independently construct detailed patient funnels, accurately mapping the flow from disease prevalence to therapy uptake, and estimate market opportunities with greater precision. Participants will develop expertise in gathering, validating, and documenting key forecasting assumptions, ensuring transparency and credibility in their analyses.
Graduates will be proficient in developing simplified forecast models that balance clarity, usability, and analytical rigor. They will be able to translate complex data and assumptions into actionable forecasts, enabling rapid scenario analysis and effective communication of results to stakeholders. Through hands-on case studies and real-world exercises, learners will strengthen their ability to critically assess data sources, engage with cross-functional teams, and apply best practices in model development and validation.
By the end of the course, participants will be equipped to support data-driven decision-making in pharmaceutical organizations, contributing to commercial analytics, business intelligence, and market access initiatives. They will be prepared to tackle real-world forecasting challenges, avoid common pitfalls, and deliver clear, actionable insights that drive strategic planning and market success.
With over 7 years of experience specialising in pharmaceutical forecasting, Ashish works closely with client teams to address key forecasting challenges, from drug acquisition valuations to long-term portfolio planning.
His expertise spans the full forecasting lifecycle, from designing patient funnels and developing models to presenting findings to executives. He also has an extensive experience in implementing cloud-based forecasting solutions at pharmaceuticals to enhance their overall process.
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